The important point is that RACR is an efficiency metric, and efficiency metrics are generally terrible predictors of future performance in football. Stability for Select Receiver Metrics StatĬareer aDOT and RACR are more predictive than career YAC per target, catch rate, and yards per target. Probably the most important thing about aDOT and RACR is that they are stable year to year, especially when we look at the career-to-date versions of the stats. What’s nice about RACR is that it rolls up catch rate and YAC into one metric, and it answers the question: “At the depth of target a player is targeted the most, how efficient was he?” Year-Over-Year Stability Another way of formulating RACR is Yards Per Target divided by aDOT. If you divide receiving yards by total air yards, you get a metric I developed called Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR). This metric tells you how deep a receiver ran his routes and how many air yards he saw per target on average. If you divide air yards by targets, you get ESPN Fantasy guru Mike Clay’s Average Depth of Target. We can use air yards to help us unearth which receivers the quarterback and coaches would like to see get the ball-knowing that has predictive value. The coach and quarterback want the receiver to secure those yards, and as such, they are a window into their thinking and mindset. Air yards are an almost perfect measure of quarterback and coaching intent. When you add completed and incomplete air yards together, you get total air yards. Incomplete air yards are exactly what they sound like: targets that were off the mark, dropped, or broken up by a defender. Completed air yards would exactly equal a receiver’s total receiving yardage if every time he caught a pass he just fell straight to the ground, like Dez Bryant in 2017. Completed air yards are just standard receiving yards minus YAC. Air yards can be divided into completed air yards and incomplete air yards. The common thread that weaves these parts of receiver play together is target depth-also known as air yards. Like catch rate, yards after catch is largely dependent on the depth of the pass. Finally, once a catch is made, a receiver needs to create on his own in the form of Yards After the Catch (YAC).Shorter passes are caught far more frequently than deep passes. A receiver’s ability to make catches is dependent on a number of factors, including the accuracy of his quarterback, but the most important factor-by far-is how deep down the field his route took him. Third, the receiver needs to catch the ball thrown in his direction. He can do this by getting separation, getting his defender’s hips turned, or simply out jumping his man.
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